China’s Gold Stockpile Could Surpass U.S. Holdings Within Five Years, BMO Says

BMO Capital Markets analysts highlight that China has built an above-ground gold stockpile of roughly 30,000 tonnes, well above official figures, accounting for about one-third of global demand flows. This strong Asian buying has helped gold prices hold above the $4,000 level despite weak Western demand. The bank estimates China now controls 13% of total above-ground gold, closing in on the United States’ 15% share.

At current purchase rates, the People’s Bank of China could match U.S. official reserves in two to five years by adding another 2,500–3,000 tonnes. In overall gold terms, China may overtake America much sooner. BMO views matching 5% of M2 money supply as a minimum target, implying a long-term need for around 18,000 tonnes.

Last month the central bank bought 15 tonnes, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, lifting this year’s total above 40 tonnes. Beijing is also expanding Hong Kong’s clearing and futures infrastructure to shift more gold price discovery power toward Asia.