Commerzbank Sticks with Metals Optimism, Eyes $4,800 Gold and $80 Silver by Year-End

Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch says the Iran war is fueling inflation pressures that will delay gold’s breakout from consolidation. The metal has failed to act as an inflation hedge or safe-haven despite Middle East turmoil.

Fed rate expectations have shifted sharply, with markets now pricing a possible hike to 3.8% by year-end and a 25-basis-point increase by spring 2027. This raises gold’s opportunity cost, prompting the bank to cut its year-end target to $4,800 per ounce from $5,000.

Commerzbank sees a two-month transition before the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil prices fall, reversing rate-hike bets. Long-term structural supports remain intact, keeping the 2027 gold forecast at $5,200.

Silver is now seen reaching $80 per ounce by year-end and $90 in 2027, reflecting softer industrial demand even as the market stays tight.