Gold Focus Shifts to $4,075/oz Level as Saxo Bank's Hansen Flags $4,600 Hurdle for Bullish Momentum Return

Gold trades firmly below its 200-day moving average amid robust labor data and rising inflation that bolster the higher-for-longer rate outlook, supporting yields and the dollar. According to Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank, the $4,075 per ounce mark is now in focus, even as longer-term fundamentals stay constructive.

Hansen highlighted that the break below the 200 DMA matters for systematic funds and momentum players, prompting position cuts. Key support lies in the $4,100–$4,075 zone, coinciding with the March low and a 38.2% retracement of the 2022 rally. This remains a modest pullback inside a broader secular uptrend.

Speculative net longs have steadied at around 171,000 contracts while gold ETF holdings fell 88 tonnes. Renewed momentum requires reclaiming $4,500 before testing the 50-day average near $4,600. The main triggers would be a durable peace deal and normalization in energy markets.