Gold to Drop Below $3,900 This Year Before Rallying to $5,300 in 2027, TD’s Bart Melek Forecasts

Bart Melek of TD Securities expects gold, currently hovering near $4,000 an ounce, to slip below $3,900 this year amid persistent inflation risks before the correction ends. He sees near-term pressure mainly from oil prices potentially spiking due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Melek cautioned that even if flows resume, depleted inventories could lift Brent crude toward the $90–110 per barrel range, keeping the Fed on a restrictive path and raising holding costs for gold. Looking further ahead, he forecasts a strong recovery, with prices climbing above $5,300 an ounce by 2027. Drivers include U.S. debt approaching $40 trillion, a more dovish Fed stance, and renewed safe-haven demand linked to currency concerns.