Heraeus: Gold and Silver Face Medium-Term Pressure from Hawkish Fed and US-Iran Deal

Heraeus analysts caution that gold and silver are likely to encounter medium-term downward pressure amid de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict and the Federal Reserve’s shift to a more hawkish stance. The Fed kept rates at 3.5–3.75% but removed its easing bias from the statement, while projections show half of FOMC participants expect rate increases, with nine forecasting hikes by the end of 2026. Chair Kevin Warsh stressed price stability given the May CPI reading of 4.2%.

The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding signed on 17 June includes a full ceasefire, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, unfreezing $28 billion in Iranian assets and a $300 billion reconstruction fund. Full normalisation of oil markets will nevertheless take months because of mine clearance, tanker insurance and transit times.

India’s silver imports dropped sharply to 1 million ounces in May from 17.2 million ounces a year earlier, partly due to the import duty rise to 15%. Silver prices retreated from above $71 per ounce to $63.3 per ounce after the Fed meeting. Spot prices currently stand at $4,190.53 for gold and $66.494 for silver.