Morgan Stanley Warns Gold May Struggle to Reach $5200/oz in 2026 Without ETF Inflows

Morgan Stanley analysts warn that without strong ETF inflows gold will struggle to reach $5200 per ounce in the second half of 2026. While central bank buying may continue, ETF flows remain sensitive to rate expectations, according to strategists Amy Gower and Martijn Rats. The bank keeps a bullish long-term outlook, expecting lower Middle East tensions and falling oil prices to ease inflation. Yet the Fed’s hawkish tone has raised chances of rates staying higher for longer, possibly with a hike, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Morgan Stanley data shows higher U.S. 10-year real yields driving ETF outflows and recent price weakness. Amy Gower noted in May that gold’s monetary-policy sensitivity now overshadows its safe-haven role, with potential rate cuts seen for early 2027 supporting further upside but prolonged conflict risking downside.