Natixis Holds $4,600 Gold Target as Central Banks Gear Up for Renewed Buying

Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah has kept his year-end gold forecast unchanged at $4,600 an ounce despite the sharp correction from record highs above $5,500 to around $4,100. He stressed that altering views with every market swing would undermine credibility, noting the next bullish phase will stem mainly from renewed central bank purchases following the Iran-US conflict. Many central banks sold or monetized gold reserves during the energy crisis, but with stabilization underway, Dahdah expects strong buying ahead. "Now that this war is behind us—in principle—I think central banks will have record months of gold purchases," he said, though he avoids calling for an overall record year due to weak first-quarter demand. Geopolitical shifts have damaged the US image as a stability guarantor, prompting reserve managers to diversify into gold. "I wouldn't be surprised to see record months because the U.S. has lost its image as a guarantor of international stability," Dahdah noted. Banks can monetize holdings via swaps rather than fire sales: "It's not just an asset that you have to give away in a fire sale. A swap is a reasonable way to monetize your gold if you're a responsible country." Steady Chinese demand combined with official-sector buying will support higher price floors. "I think with the way central banks are consistently adding gold, it's just putting a floor under the market. It's the marginal incremental increase that creates those higher floors," he concluded.