TD Securities: Breaking Key Gold Levels Could Trigger Accelerated Near-Term Selling

Gold continues to outperform other precious metals despite rising energy costs and growing expectations for additional Fed rate hikes. Yet TD Securities analysts Ryan McKay and Bart Melek caution that CTAs and major funds could turn into sellers if key support levels are breached. "CTAs turn modest sellers below $4,367/oz and systematic funds become more prone to heavier selling below $4,300/oz," they noted. In the near term, gold will show heightened sensitivity to incoming data, with inflation figures as the next major catalyst, while robust statistics and a hawkish Fed may prompt only modest selling. Over a longer horizon, dollar debasement narratives, central bank purchases and ETF accumulation provide solid backing. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks that inflation is not convincingly slowing could lead to rate hikes in September and December. TD Securities sees gold falling toward the lower end of the $4,200-$4,700 range by year-end, with a Q3 2027 target of $5,350/oz.